International coal prices high domestic coal imports unabated

Due to the rapid rise in international coal prices before, some people had expected that the coal import volume in January should be significantly reduced. In fact, China's coal import volume in January was lower than last year's record level, but it still maintains a high level.

According to the data, China imported 16.56 million tons of coal in January, which was 4.5% less than that in December of last year but an increase of 4.8% from the same period of last year. Due to heating and other factors affecting winter season, coal importers have ordered coal for winter months in advance because international coal prices are still at a low level. This may be because coal imports remained high in January. the reason.

Huang Teng, general manager of Beijing Long-Trade Consultants Ltd., said that the current importers are reluctant to place new orders because the current domestic coal price is much lower than the international market price.

According to the Marine Coal Index Center, as of February 23, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Bay thermal coal price index was 769 yuan (116.82 US dollars) per tonne, up 5% from last October. Australia's Newcastle Port coal price last Friday was US$126.64 per tonne, which is a 30% increase from the average price in October last year. The general increase in global commodity prices has kept pace. Factors that contributed to the rise in commodity prices include the weakening of the US dollar and the expected increase in demand caused by the global economic recovery and the impact of flooding in Australia.

Although there was no significant reduction in the amount of imported coal in January, the sale of imported coal has become a problem. The author learned from a coal trader in Guangzhou that most of these imported coal are ordered by power plants, and some of the imported coal is too expensive because they are too expensive. They often choose to sell at a lower price. According to the above-mentioned traders, there is no major change in the current share of imported coal. In terms of market prices, there is no advantage for domestic coal.

According to relevant persons from Guangzhou Port, among the imported coal, the Australian coal accounted for a small portion of the total or Indonesian coal. When the import coal contract is signed and most of the arrival time is divided into regions, the signing of the Indonesian coal contract for the power plant is probably shorter than a year's time, and the arrival time is almost 1-2 months.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, coal exports in January amounted to 1.43 million tons, which means that China's net import of coal was 15.13 million tons this month. In January, coal exports from the previous month were 1.45 million tons, which fell slightly to 1.43 million tons. The export volume was basically stable.

In December last year, the international coal price rose rapidly. Taking into account the pursuit of profit maximization by enterprises, some people expect that coal exports in January should exceed December, and I have also analyzed that coal exports may rise.

Although the data did not increase, but compared with the neighboring months, it has not declined, and the export volume in the next two months may increase. Of course, there will not be much increase in the increase. After all, there are quotas for China's steam coal exports. limit.

Compared to China, the outbreak of floods in the Queensland area of ​​Australia will significantly increase the export of thermal coal in the United States, and it is expected to promote the US coal companies to set a new record of profit and stimulate US coal exports to hit a new high in 15 years. U.S. Bank-Merrill Lynch said in its January 25 report that the total production of steelmaking and steam coal in Queensland could drop by 23 million metric tons after the flood hit Australia. The US Department of Energy has also previously announced that this year's US coal exports are expected to rise 8.8% to about 86.5 million tons, the highest level since 1996.

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