Construction machinery industry may enter weak recovery phase

The construction machinery industry is one of the largest steel consumption sub-sectors in the machinery industry. In 2012, it consumed 15.2 million tons of steel, which accounted for 12.2% of the steel consumption of the machinery industry and accounted for 2.3% of the total steel consumption. According to the overall development trend of the machinery industry in 2013, taking into account the role of farm machinery, electrical appliances, petrochemical general machinery and other industries in stimulating consumption, it is expected that steel consumption in the machinery industry will maintain a low-speed growth trend in 2013, and the steel consumption in the whole year is expected to reach 131 million tons, which is the same Increased by 4.8%.

From the perspective of the operation of the above industries since the beginning of this year, industry data performed relatively well. However, it is undeniable that this year, including many other industries including construction machinery, the pace of recovery has been accelerating, mostly reflected in the production of enterprises, mainly due to the previous increase in infrastructure investment, new urbanization and many other expectations. In fact, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand.

According to the data, due to the active production of previous production enterprises, including steel, automobiles, household appliances, construction machinery, real estate, and other industries, there have been transitions from re-stocking to de-stocking. Except the steel industry, the production enthusiasm of other manufacturing industries will be weakened. . For related steel products such as hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, plate, automotive steel, etc., it means that the downstream industry demand may be reduced. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of the production of steel enterprises continues unabated. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel output in April was 65.65 million tons, an average of 2.19 million tons per day, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous period. It indicates that the market pressure on steel market will continue to increase.

On the other hand, because the major manufacturing industries such as autos and machinery used to drive production with better demand, most of the industries are already in high inventory. In April, manufacturing PMI data showed that the new orders index fell sharply, indicating that manufacturing also The production companies have moved to the inventory phase, which greatly reduces their enthusiasm for production, thus restricting the sales of the upstream steel market. From this point of view, we believe that in the coming period of time, the major sheet metal products such as cold-rolled hot-rolled steel plate and plate will continue to face a lower growth rate of downstream demand, and the plate prices will continue to maintain a pattern of falling and rising, but as before Plate, hot-rolled and other steel prices have been at a low point, and the space for continued downward adjustment should be limited.